I've never been to this site before, but RopeofSilicon.com's Oscar picks is a fun, bitchy read. And it's probably as accurate as anything else you will hear about the Oscars.
I don't get out to cinemas as much as I would like to (becoming a home theatre nut though). I wish I could say I've seen any of the nominees, but I haven't.
My friend Raymond over at VanRamblings has also been following the Oscar race.